Year: 2026 | Month: June | Volume 71 | Issue 2
Assessing the Impact of Climate and Agricultural Variables on Rice Yield in Punjab
Karnati Kiran Kumar and Naveen Kumar
DOI:10.46852/0424-2513.2.2026.3
Abstract:
Rice is a vital staple crop in India, with Punjab being one of its largest producers and making a significant contribution to the country’s food security. In recent years, Punjab has faced several impacts of climate change, such as rising temperatures and fluctuations in rainfall, which affect rice production. In this context, the current study examines the interdependence between climate variables and rice yield in Punjab from 1990 to 2022 by using the Granger causality test and the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. The estimated VAR results were then employed for future predictions.
Highlights
- The findings indicate a bidirectional causality between climate variables and rice yield. The VAR estimates suggest that climate factors notably influence rice yield in Punjab.
- In particular, the minimum temperature and precipitation favorably contribute to the yield of rice; the maximum temperature, however, is detrimental
- Additionally, canal water irrigation negatively impacts rice yield.
- This study recommends that, to safeguard rice cultivation in Punjab from climate change, a multifaceted strategy is essential, including diversifying the cropping system, adopting various climate-resilient rice varieties and encouraging sustainable agrarian practices.
- Improved extension services can further enhance farmers’ decision–making. Moreover, water–saving techniques such as wetting and drying, direct–seeded rice, and seeding on raised beds can significantly reduce water usage and potentially increase yields.
© This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited
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