Year: 2026 | Month: March | Volume 71 | Issue 1
Forecasting of Area, Production and Productivity of Total Pulses in Madhya Pradesh and its Yield Sustainability
Neeraj Dhakad
Pradeep Mishra
Umesh Singh
Soumik Ray
Sanjay Singh Chouhan
Vikas Jain and S.S. Das
DOI:10.46852/0424-2513.1.2026.10
Abstract:
The present study was conducted to analyze the pulse area, production and output in India and Madhya Pradesh from 1950 to 2022, employing descriptive statistics, trends and Sustainability index. The result revealed that the area under pulses in India and Madhya Pradesh has expanded by 67.01% and 146.05% respectively, with output growth of 215.00% and 826.16% during the study period. Pulses yields in India and Madhya Pradesh have shown a slight improvement, with yields increasing by two and ten times from 1950 to 2020. In the case of trend analysis quadratic trends are found in the area, yield, and production of pulses in India, while in Madhya Pradesh, trends are quadratic in area and production, and exponential in yield. The Box-Jenkins methodology was used for forecasting up to 2030. The best-fitted ARIMA models were selected based on ACF and PACF at various lags. Forecasting performances of this model were selected based on their minimum AIC, RMSE,MAE, MAPE, and maximum R2 values. Model parameters were estimated by using the Gretl software. Empirical results showed that ARIMA (1,1,5) and (1,1,4) are found to be the best for area under pulses in India and Madhya Pradesh, respectively. The ARIMA (0,1,1) and ARIMA (1,1,5) models are the best for yield under pulses in India and Madhya Pradesh, respectively. Furthermore, according to the sustainability index of pulses production in India and Madhya Pradesh indicating that both regions are highly sustainable in pulses production during period III (2001-2022). Moreover, this study provided valuable insights into the trends and sustainability of pulses production in India and Madhya Pradesh, which can inform policy decisions and future planning for the agricultural sector.
Highlights
- Both India and Madhya Pradesh have witnessed a substantial expansion in the acreage and production of pulses.
- Despite some fluctuations, the positive skewness and kurtosis values suggest overall upward trends in pulse output.
- Sustainability indices affirm the high sustainability of pulses production in India and Madhya Pradesh, during 2001-2022.
- ARIMA models predict a continued upward trajectory in pulse area, production, and yield in both India and Madhya Pradesh.
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