Economic Affairs March 2020

Agriculture occupies the most prominent position in Himachal Pradesh, as it is the mainstay of more than 69 per cent of the stateandrsquo;s population. Since the state is exposed to constraints such as shrinking land holdings coupled with perceptible changes in weather and climate, protected cultivation has emerged as the best alternative for using land and other resources efficiently. The main aim of this technology is to enhance the socio-economic conditions of the farmers. Therefore, the present study was conducted to analyse the cropping pattern, production and productivity of major crops being cultivated under protected conditions and to study its impact in crop productivity, employment and income (farm income and total household income) generation and income variability. In order to have a better insight, the factors under consideration were compared to the open-field conditions. The study is based on primary data collected through survey method for the agricultural year 2015-16. The data had been collected from 60 tomato (30 open-field and 30 polyhouse) growers, selected through proportional allocation method from Kangra District of Himachal Pradesh. The study revealed that protected cultivation had a significant impact in enhancing the crop productivity and was approximately three times higher in comparison to the open-field conditions. The labour utilization pattern on protected cultivation was found to be almost four times higher than that of the open- field cultivation indicating a significant contribution in enhancing the employment opportunities. The average farm and household income of the protected growers was observed to be increased by about 25 and 11 per cent, respectively with the adoption of protected technology in the study area. The income variability of the protected growers was also found to be less in comparison to the open-field growers indicating lesser risk and higher stability of income generated by the protected growers in the study area. Therefore, it can be concluded that protected cultivation has a significantly positive impact in improving the socio-economic conditions of the farmers in the study area and suits well to the agro-climatic conditions prevailing in the hilly areas like Himachal Pradesh.

Potato is an integral part of the global food system and the worldandrsquo;s number one non food grain commodity. During 2018-19 potato acreage in India was 21.84 lakh ha with a production of 52.58 million tonnes. Major potato growing states are Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Bihar, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Punjab. Prices of potato exhibit both inter-year and intra-year variations. This price fluctuation in potato is a major concern among farmers, consumers and policy makers. The current study is an attempt to analyze the behavior of prices and arrivals of potato in the major markets of India. The time series data on the price and arrivals of potato in the major markets of leading producing states were collected from Agmarknet. The data corresponding to the potato prices in future market were collected from MCX (Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd.) where it has been traded till 2014. The prices of potato significantly increased over the last ten years compounded annually in all the selected markets. Significant positive growth rate of arrivals was found in Agra and Ahmadabad markets and negative growth rate was found in Jalandhar market. The price and arrivals series have shown significant negative correlation in all the markets. Seasonal indices depict that prices of potato are usually high during the months of October to December and starts declining till April which is in par with the post harvest period of the crop. Price discovery of potato is a complex process and is affected by a number of factors like production, total arrivals, lagged price, future prices, which have been quantified here and other factors like transportation, storage, weather uncertainties and pests and disease attack.

Non-timber forest products (NTFPs) income plays an important role in the household economy in the rural forest dwelling communities. The study utilised both the primary data and secondary data. Primary data were collected from 30 sample households from two villages in Ri-Bhoi district of Meghalaya to analysis the significant of NTFPs income in the rural household economy with the objectives, (i) To study the determinants of income generation through NTFP (ii) To estimate the extent of employment generation through NTFP (iii) Price behaviour of selected NTFP in Mawiong regulated market. Econometric model and Box-Jenkins Autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) methodology were applied for the study. The study found that income from business was the major income sources (45.74 % share to the total household income). Income from NTFPs collection has the second largest share with 22.05 per cent followed by crop production with 14.61 per cent, labour with 9.16 per cent and livestock with 8.44 per cent. The lin-log model was selected as best model based on the value of Randsup2; value (0.89). Years of experience, total hours spent in NTFPs collection and average land holding have positive and significant relationship with the NTFPs income while age and distance travelled has a negative and significant association with it. Broom grass and Tezpatta contribute 2 and 1 manday/qtl/year to the total NTFPs employment. ARIMA (0, 1, 1) was the best fitted model as it has the lowest Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC). The price of Broom grass was forecasted for five weeks from 4th week of November to 4th week of December 2018 using ARIMA (0, 1, 1). The forecast Broom grass price for 4th week of November to be ` 2891.66 /qtl which will decrease to ` 2687.46 in 4th week of December.

The study has assessed the impact of rural-urban migration by comparing migrant and non-migrant households in the Tiruppur district of Tamil Nadu. In this connection, a purposive sampling technique was used to select 80 migrant and 80 non-migrant respondents from the study region. Moreover, the study was employed decomposition analysis to understand the income difference between two groups with respect to migration. The estimated result shows that 65.35 percent of the income difference between migrant and non-migrant households due to migration. Also, noticed that comparatively migrants experience a better standard of living along with savings due to higher income and they did not have an idea of returning to agriculture. However, migration is an indication of unequal development of rural and urban which could be minimized by improvising rural living standards by creating employment opportunities, motivating entrepreneurship activities, supporting farming community with special reference to small and marginal farmers.