This study investigates decadal trends (2013–2024) in apple prices and arrivals in the Bilaspur market of Himachal Pradesh and compares them with national-level production and yield patterns from 1982 to 2023. Apple remains a cornerstone of temperate fruit cultivation in India, contributing significantly to rural incomes and the horticultural economy. Using analytical tools like the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) and the Cuddy-Della Valle Instability Index (CDVI), the study finds that apple prices in Bilaspur grew at a moderate CAGR of 0.82 per cent, but with high instability (CDVI 44.81%) in the overall period. In contrast, national production and yield exhibited steadier growth at 1.41 per cent and 3.50 per cent, respectively. Forecasts show Bilaspur prices may rise sharply to over ` 10023.36 per quintal by Q4 (Sep- Dec) of 2027, highlighting increasing market stress and supply-side challenges. The findings emphasize the urgent need for robust cold-chain infrastructure, timely policy support, and climateadaptive strategies to manage seasonal volatility. This research offers actionable insights for producers, traders, and policymakers navigating India’s evolving apple market.

Highlights

• This study focuses on instability and forecast patterns of apple prices in Bilaspur, alongside nationallevel production and yield trends (1982–2023).
• The high price instability was observed (CDVI 44.81%) in the overall period, whereas the Q2 and Q3 quarter reveals CDVI of 32.82 per cent, and 38.23 per cent indicating heightened volatility during the monsoon harvest period.
• Price forecasts suggest a steep rise, with Bilaspur apple prices expected to exceed ` 10023.36 per quintal by the end of 2027.