This study evaluates India’s dairy export potential and performance in Asian markets from 2000 to 2022 using HS 4/6-digit level data sourced from UNCOMTRADE. The analysis highlights India’s export portfolio has evolved with a stable core of ‘Regular Products’ complemented by emerging ‘New Products’, indicating diversification. Traditional markets in South Asia and the Gulf remain critical,

but performance in Central and Eastern Asia underscores the need for a targeted and sustained trade strategy. Export elasticity estimated from a double-log econometric model reveal Butteroil (HS-040590), Unprocessed Cheese (HS-040690), and Casein (HS-350110) as high-potential products due to significant and positive import elasticity. However, price competitiveness is critical for Butter (HS-040510) and Casein (HS-350110), as these products exhibited negative and significant relative price elasticity in several

destinations. Notably, markets with the highest export potential for India include Malaysia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). To reduce dependence on existing markets and avoid over-reliance on a few key countries, India may prioritize diversification and address challenges in Central and Eastern Asia, leveraging untapped opportunities to enhance its export footprint.

Highlights

• India’s dairy exports consist of a consistent core of “Regular Products”, supplemented by “New Products”, reflecting diversification and growth.
• Butteroil (HS-040590), Unprocessed Cheese (HS-040690), and Casein (HS-350110) demonstrated high import elasticity, while Butter (HS-040510) and Casein (HS-350110) exhibited significant negative price elasticity in several markets.
• Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE emerged as key destinations with substantial export potential for Indian dairy products.