Fish GDP has considerable impact from mean temperature, precipitation and CO2 emission over a period of time. Here we use empirical findings from three South Asian countries namely Bangladesh, India and Thailand for period of 1991-2020 using an Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. There is a significant positive long-term relationship between CO2 and fish GDP for Bangladesh and India, while temperature and precipitation show a non-significant negative association. In Thailand, precipitation has

a significant positive impact on fish GDP, while temperature and CO2 also have positive effects but are not statistically significant. The error correction term is highly significant, indicating a strong short run adjustment towards long run equilibrium. The fitted models were reliable and stable confirmed using econometric analysis. The positive influence of CO2 emissions on fish GDP underscores the need for emissions reduction policies and sustainability efforts in India and Bangladesh. By leveraging insights from this model, these countries can develop both immediate and long-term strategies to sustain the health and productivity of the fisheries sector amidst environmental changes.

Highlights

• ARDL model quantifies long-term and short-term economic impacts of climate change on fisheries in India, Bangladesh, and Thailand
• CO₂ emissions positively influence fish GDP in Bangladesh and India, necessitating sustainability efforts.
• Temperature and precipitation exhibit a non-significant negative impact on fish GDP in Bangladesh and India.