This study explores the trends and dynamics of Gross Capital Formation (GCF) in India’s agricultural sector from 1980 to 2023, with a particular focus on public and private investments. The analysis employs a combination of polynomial trendlines, Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), Coefficient of Variation (CV), and correlation analysis to assess the impact of key policy milestones, such as the 1991 Economic Reforms, the 2000 National Agricultural Policy, and the 2013 Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) scheme, on

capital formation in agriculture. The results reveal a general decline in public investment, accompanied by strong growth in private sector contributions, particularly since the 1990s. The study also finds a statistically significant negative relationship between public and private investments, suggesting that public sector investments may crowd out private investments. The findings have important policy

implications for improving access to capital for small farmers and fostering sustainable agricultural development.

Highlights

• This study analyzes the trends in agricultural investments in India from 1980–81 to 2022–23 using Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), Coefficient of Variation (CV), Pearson Correlation, and Polynomial Trendlines (quadratic/cubic) to assess growth, volatility, relationship, and structural changes in public and private sector investments.
• The CAGR for public investment is -0.85%, indicating a decline, while private investment grew at 3.63%, showing increasing reliance on the private sector. Total GCF recorded a moderate CAGR of 2.26%.
• Public investment was the most stable (CV: 0.1224) compared to private (CV: 0.1558) and total investment (CV: 0.1309), reflecting less fluctuation in government funding over time.