Year: 2014 | Month: September | Volume 59 | Issue 3
Stochastic Model for Sticklac Forecasting in India
Lawrence Lepcha
Bishal Gurung
Ranjit Kumar Paul
Kanchan Sinha
DOI:10.5958/0976-4666.2014.00015.1
Abstract:
In the present study, we aim to devise most appropriate prediction model for India’s annual sticklac production data based on Exponential Autoregressive (EXPAR) model. Statistical modelling and forecasting of agricultural time-series data plays a vital role in comprehending the underlying relationships among statistically significant variables and helping the planners in policy making. Accordingly, in this paper, a promising methodology of EXPAR family of models has been employed to describe India’s annual sticklac production data that depict such cyclical fluctuations.The fitted EXPAR model captured the data in a satisfactory manner. Further, the performance of the model is compared by computing various measures of goodness-of-fit and forecast performance. We conclude that EXPAR model performs quite well for modelling as well as forecasting of the cyclical data under consideration.
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